MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df9ed194983f0e56747b29a8ca1b7667449ff71562632db0d73e44295a8013c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 69c | 4,965$3,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,423.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 31c | 4,567$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,155.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 30c | 2,217$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 2,167$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 1,738$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19c6…c063backed Under | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 1,348$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.57 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 1,114$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.77 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 43c | 922.77$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.98 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 41c | 821$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.39 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 30c | 399$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 330$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 53c | 294.02$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.19 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 175.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 34c | 121.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 120.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 71.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 20c | 54.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Under | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 45c | 41.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 51c | 41.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc9…eb4cbacked Over | 60c | 40.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Under | 70c | 39.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 70c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…4066backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 31c | 32.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 59c | 27.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked Over | 45c | 27.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 44c | 26.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…a65bbacked Over | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 25.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 74c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Under | 44c | 23.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 73c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 18.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.