TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$427,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$431,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb91a…3987backed Under50c200,000$99,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,060.2313561.5%83 W · 52 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Over50c75,308$37,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,654.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.38per pick52cpaid-60.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Over50c72,081$36,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,040.611849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over50c68,555$34,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,277.592054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0007550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under50c45,331$22,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,661.592,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over49c14,800$7,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,251.8285645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Over50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50044851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under51c5,742$2,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,841.054,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Over50c5,500$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7502245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Over50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over51c4,124$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1007843.6%34 W · 44 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over23c4,109$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.978,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over49c3,906$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.1610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under49c3,835$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9562,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x205c…9192backed Over50c3,825$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under51c3,394$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.261,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Under49c3,215$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.88353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50019053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Over50c3,000$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51024946.2%115 W · 134 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Over50c2,741$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.7377951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over50c2,567$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.523538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e20…27a7backed Under54c2,554$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Over51c2,512$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.028943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Over49c2,404$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.0866050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over49c2,107$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.2621748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under50c1,800$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90086653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b3…49f8backed Over43c1,730$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7405448.1%26 W · 28 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c1,510$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.21,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29fe…2ebfbacked Over50c1,494$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.061957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over32c1,271$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.7230647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e93…439cbacked Over50c1,242$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.971464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over51c1,199$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.5673748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over50c1,106$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.7928154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over29c1,097$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under51c1,021$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.9868053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over49c1,011$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.389,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under53c1,000$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.219657.3%55 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3499…60b5backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+34.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x242c…286dbacked Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab0…0d18backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over49c932.64$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45759549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Over50c887.78$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.8961450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Over51c862.97$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.127851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under51c798.69$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.361,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over50c798.1$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.355,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Over51c784.61$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40013851.4%71 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c0…e88fbacked Over50c688$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under49c669.58$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.976,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Over51c668.98$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.761,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over46c652.1$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.674,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Under49c650$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.525249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Over50c635.88$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.310246.1%47 W · 55 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under50c633.01$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.51,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Over50c604.52$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2629255.8%163 W · 129 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over43c597.35$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.398,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.922,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over30c521.31$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.898,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over50c480.4$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.21,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over50c470.96$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4841051.7%212 W · 198 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Over50c422.1$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.0557548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Over50c422.02$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.0115949.7%79 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Under51c405.96$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.924841.7%20 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f7a…0f82backed Over50c350$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1757044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under63c343.1$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.942,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9819153.9%103 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Under51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14748354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Over51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15043247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over30c287.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.965,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over50c265.44$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.032,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under54c249.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.992759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under60c249$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.64,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over51c248.87$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.921,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under57c234.7$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.13,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over49c227.88$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6649158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfad…3ca2backed Over50c206$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033060%18 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over50c204.83$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0811047.3%52 W · 58 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012845.3%58 W · 70 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034942.7%149 W · 200 L-19.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee6b…accbbacked Under51c197.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.587346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed Under51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0815159.6%90 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3e4…4512backed Under51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.082343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12a1…d857backed Under51c186.27$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.271546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over49c173.49$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.014,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Under51c167.26$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9629553.2%157 W · 138 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd4d…aa9ebacked Over50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc923…d7ffbacked Under51c156.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c0…b32fbacked Under51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.06933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c0…576dbacked Over50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.