CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BET-M 33 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bce381fd73a5b8cc784a5cb2868edc32d23ffef4a372264ba7902f28fcc0829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GenOneof GenOne, BET-M 33
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a90…7e68backed GenOne | 52c | 4,520$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 4,512$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.16 | 668 | 51.8%346 W · 322 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed BET-M 33 | 47c | 4,078$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.45 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4d…b4cabacked GenOne | 53c | 1,531$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.56 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…fc9bbacked GenOne | 53c | 1,385$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.93 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked BET-M 33 | 3c | 1,360$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BET-M 33 | 39c | 1,164$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.95 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 1,041$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b3…90c7backed BET-M 33 | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 887.99$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.23 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed BET-M 33 | 50c | 844.76$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.53 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…9cb5backed GenOne | 52c | 843.64$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.02 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed GenOne | 49c | 813.41$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.41 | 190 | 61.6%117 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed BET-M 33 | 12c | 547.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed GenOne | 53c | 512$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed BET-M 33 | 50c | 509.79$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.53 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a66…fa83backed GenOne | 52c | 453.27$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.57 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e84fbacked GenOne | 52c | 444.23$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.23 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a70…0519backed GenOne | 54c | 408.31$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 388 | 35.6%138 W · 250 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed GenOne | 79c | 372.92$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 319.35$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.29 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked GenOne | 53c | 299.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.41 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…f8febacked GenOne | 52c | 299.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed GenOne | 53c | 291.51$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…3ab3backed GenOne | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed GenOne | 52c | 280.28$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed BET-M 33 | 54c | 271.48$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed GenOne | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 55.4%221 W · 178 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed BET-M 33 | 45c | 202.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…77e9backed GenOne | 52c | 198.81$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…825ebacked BET-M 33 | 51c | 196.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked GenOne | 52c | 193.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed GenOne | 52c | 186.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…0953backed GenOne | 44c | 179.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed GenOne | 52c | 156.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed BET-M 33 | 25c | 152$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 883 | 30.7%271 W · 612 L | -63.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked BET-M 33 | 7c | 151$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 145.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 388 | 41.8%162 W · 226 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked BET-M 33 | 42c | 144.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked GenOne | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked GenOne | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 482 | 42.1%203 W · 279 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked GenOne | 54c | 134.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked BET-M 33 | 48c | 129.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked GenOne | 54c | 128.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked BET-M 33 | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 122.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…dac0backed GenOne | 77c | 118.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 414 | 75.4%312 W · 102 L | +22.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed GenOne | 49c | 111.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked GenOne | 56c | 107.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed GenOne | 50c | 106.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked BET-M 33 | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…8a03backed BET-M 33 | 21c | 95.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked BET-M 33 | 45c | 94.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed BET-M 33 | 50c | 87.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked BET-M 33 | 48c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed GenOne | 54c | 85.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…f115backed GenOne | 56c | 84.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed GenOne | 51c | 83.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed GenOne | 53c | 75.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed BET-M 33 | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 470 | 54%254 W · 216 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed GenOne | 54c | 73.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 557 | 49.7%277 W · 280 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked GenOne | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked GenOne | 61c | 61.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked GenOne | 57c | 54.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked BET-M 33 | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed BET-M 33 | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3d67backed GenOne | 53c | 47.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d72…a791backed GenOne | 53c | 47.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 167 | 54.5%91 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed BET-M 33 | 43c | 35.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed GenOne | 52c | 34.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdb…0d6fbacked GenOne | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 116 | 39.7%46 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8818…f8acbacked GenOne | 52c | 24.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked GenOne | 55c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked BET-M 33 | 48c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 850 | 54.4%462 W · 388 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed GenOne | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdc…838abacked GenOne | 79c | 18.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BET-M 33 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BET-M 33 - Map 1 WinnerGenOne won
- Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BET-M 33 - Map 2 WinnerGenOne won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.