TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,517 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes45c952.59$429 inWon+$524.022,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No55c952$524 inLost-$523.61,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed No61c71.48$43 inLost-$43.4543043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No50c68.56$34 inLost-$34.092,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Yes39c57.11$22 inWon+$34.9437444.4%166 W · 208 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No51c41.97$21 inLost-$21.215,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Yes36c40$14 inWon+$25.64936.7%18 W · 31 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Yes36c37$13 inWon+$23.719353.9%104 W · 89 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes44c34.09$15 inWon+$19.0915050%75 W · 75 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Yes74c30$22 inWon+$7.826762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed No64c25$16 inLost-$16.16,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes43c24.32$10 inWon+$13.8259749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No55c24.07$13 inLost-$13.241,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Yes45c24.07$11 inWon+$13.249543.2%41 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.