MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfd4b12df4f6fa408cad1e471c4e70f19063fc3480ac95db2780e2d3644debda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 4,600$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.22 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 4,530$2,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,624.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 4,446$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 2,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 1,230$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 24c | 1,117$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 1,053$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.52 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 800$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 524$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 496.38$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 480$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 437.2$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 420$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 409.69$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 316.88$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 260.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 143.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Milwaukee Brewers | 80c | 124.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 89.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 85.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 68.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 68.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 43.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 43.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 41.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 38.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…038dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 35.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 35.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 31.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 30.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 29.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 25.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…e037backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 20.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4636…e0e2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 18.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1213…dafdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 17.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…58f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 16.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…e1ccbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 16.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa025…3a9fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 16.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…7353backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 16.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…2eb0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…ebb7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 16.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…ab68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…6c7cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.