MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dea17668d1ef19458c7c292250188d074d455fa7eb44b407639e09be9a3a387
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 6,327$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 57c | 5,292$2,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,296.1 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 2,844$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.87 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 2,185$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 2,136$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked Under | 1c | 2,128$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +354.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 2,027$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 1,906$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.03 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 57c | 941$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.98 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 51c | 584.95$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.27 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 554.35$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 59c | 516.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.02 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 420.01$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 400.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 27c | 353.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 349.82$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 20c | 219.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 201.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 123.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 44c | 97.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Over | 48c | 96.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 86.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 86.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 41c | 80.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 32c | 60.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 51c | 46.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 74c | 45.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 77c | 44.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 76c | 40.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 62c | 38.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 38c | 38.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Under | 57c | 38.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 48c | 37.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 49c | 32.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 36c | 32.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 31.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…98dcbacked Under | 38c | 30.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 52c | 25.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 49c | 25.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 41c | 25.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 51c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Under | 47c | 23.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 69c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 78c | 16.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.