TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,081
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,081 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals58c3,314$1,933 inWon+$1,380.522,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Milwaukee Brewers41c1,200$492 inLost-$4925,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Milwaukee Brewers41c1,054$430 inLost-$4301,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers42c911.87$381 inLost-$380.536,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd087…c3adbacked St. Louis Cardinals80c700$560 inWon+$1401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc18a…7c09backed Milwaukee Brewers20c700$140 inLost-$140137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals73c689.82$506 inWon+$183.598,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals50c516.14$258 inWon+$257.9211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…3a3fbacked Milwaukee Brewers21c426.03$89 inLost-$89.4711637.9%44 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers27c237.2$65 inLost-$64.7712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Milwaukee Brewers50c228.54$114 inLost-$114.2779255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers48c162$78 inLost-$77.764,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Milwaukee Brewers49c151.91$74 inLost-$74.441,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Milwaukee Brewers50c113$57 inLost-$56.51,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers46c111.94$52 inLost-$51.952,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed St. Louis Cardinals52c70.06$37 inWon+$33.3846946.3%217 W · 252 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d6f…be20backed St. Louis Cardinals55c68.21$38 inWon+$30.4323454.7%128 W · 106 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals76c67.45$51 inWon+$16.433,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed St. Louis Cardinals52c60.92$32 inWon+$29.1744648.7%217 W · 229 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals60c54.24$33 inWon+$21.5710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Milwaukee Brewers50c51.71$26 inLost-$25.8566056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers38c51.1$19 inLost-$19.456,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers22c51$11 inLost-$11.113,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Milwaukee Brewers50c45.64$23 inLost-$22.821,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a61…e6d8backed Milwaukee Brewers45c44.44$20 inLost-$209150.5%46 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers36c37.12$13 inLost-$13.29,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Milwaukee Brewers46c36.71$17 inLost-$16.811,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked St. Louis Cardinals45c33.39$15 inWon+$18.5213946.8%65 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed St. Louis Cardinals78c28$22 inWon+$6.161,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed St. Louis Cardinals80c26.69$21 inWon+$5.441,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked St. Louis Cardinals79c24.67$19 inWon+$5.1814344.8%64 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals80c21.45$17 inWon+$4.292,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals66c21.1$14 inWon+$7.222,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x932d…8529backed Milwaukee Brewers56c19.89$11 inLost-$11.1711346%52 W · 61 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.