MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe799dbfb9b9c89dcdfcce348075a18c962961bbfb3df5c11c76c5f7c3e698d51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 41c | 9,917$4,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,852.01 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 59c | 6,676$3,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,932.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under | 61c | 1,322$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 1,320$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 59c | 1,197$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.04 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 960.41$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 914.01$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.79 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 62c | 818$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.79 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 77c | 779.22$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.22 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 528.73$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.39 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 66c | 519.19$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.67 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 484.69$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 61c | 423.41$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.15 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 405.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 353.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Over | 65c | 302.97$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.27 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 40c | 300.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 60c | 283.23$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Under | 35c | 261.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.34 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 34c | 246.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.56 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 38c | 238.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.1 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 58c | 236.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 38c | 211.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.33 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 210.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 70c | 206$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 40c | 202.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 62c | 171.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 125.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 38c | 122.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 29c | 110.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 38c | 110.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…e602backed Under | 38c | 90.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 58c | 88.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 41c | 64.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9eb…aa05backed Over | 55c | 54.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 52.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 34c | 48.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 29c | 48.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 34c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 59c | 46.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 36c | 33.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 34c | 32.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Over | 59c | 29.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 63c | 28.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7b…cd67backed Under | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 70c | 24.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 70c | 20.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.