AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2be051d061713dea865057cea42b9b79e4967f215966763c25db27be798ab675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 21c | 3,343$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.64 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 45c | 2,824$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.2 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 25c | 2,070$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.14 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,739$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 7c | 1,500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…704cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,229$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 5c | 888.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 15c | 615$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.73 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…bcb4backed Yes | 27c | 498.21$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 12c | 342.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…4673backed Yes | 70c | 286.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +278.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 255.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 249$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 59c | 240.22$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 43c | 217$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 16c | 201.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…16c6backed Yes | 23c | 185.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 10c | 162.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f4…362dbacked No | 79c | 151.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 62c | 107$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 67c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 63c | 75.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 57c | 64.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 52c | 58.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d84…2a04backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…e95fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7668…cebfbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…be49backed Yes | 75c | 39.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on August 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on August 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.