MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2be2900f384ece203fac65fba2df1f3746cc09a949700ac9ca6bd71a0b13f12d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 1,694$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…69d8backed New York Yankees | 51c | 970.97$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…935fbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 563.35$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 74c | 563.15$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.22 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 528.63$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 481.85$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 414.72$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 408.36$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.93 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed St. Louis Cardinals | 9c | 406.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.56 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 393$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.51 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 46c | 324.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 40c | 237.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 72c | 227.02$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed New York Yankees | 51c | 222.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed St. Louis Cardinals | 16c | 153.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 153$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 145.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 121.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 114.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 37c | 108.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed New York Yankees | 45c | 95.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 90.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed New York Yankees | 30c | 84.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 64.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Yankees | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed New York Yankees | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked New York Yankees | 51c | 51.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked New York Yankees | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…d87fbacked New York Yankees | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 35.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Yankees | 48c | 21.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Yankees | 63c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed New York Yankees | 51c | 20.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a6…ef45backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Yankees | 76c | 15.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.