MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c3ddc28862f527b219e446ebd48b58d67bb0cbd9624fecf6118494e557db07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Yankees | 78c | 3,270$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.52 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 77c | 2,818$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 1,874$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.31 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 31c | 1,703$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 79c | 1,687$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.83 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 1,024$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.72 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 14c | 750.45$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.38 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 744$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.32 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 699.78$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 62c | 633.44$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.18 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed New York Yankees | 55c | 599.27$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 77c | 584.17$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 580.57$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 519.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 451.2$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 450.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 423.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.1 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 402.71$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 395.59$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 393.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.44 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed New York Yankees | 23c | 316.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 245.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 233.25$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 220$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 38c | 208.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed St. Louis Cardinals | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed New York Yankees | 21c | 140.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 107.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed St. Louis Cardinals | 24c | 95.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 81.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked New York Yankees | 56c | 76.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed New York Yankees | 36c | 72.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 66.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Yankees | 32c | 66.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 59.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed New York Yankees | 27c | 59.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed New York Yankees | 34c | 58.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…08bcbacked New York Yankees | 35c | 56.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6b…7d19backed New York Yankees | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed New York Yankees | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked New York Yankees | 25c | 51.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Yankees | 37c | 48.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed New York Yankees | 35c | 42.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed New York Yankees | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…1914backed New York Yankees | 38c | 38.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 34.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…0801backed New York Yankees | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 30.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 25.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…5884backed New York Yankees | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.