MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134e08dee76e566a63d4ceec870feadaf039820a7eea5895fb4929383259f240
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 13,292$5,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,761.39 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 7,678$4,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,142.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…552ebacked Under | 33c | 5,728$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.47 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 5,669$3,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 4,289$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.62 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 69c | 3,767$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.23 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 44c | 3,500$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed Under | 56c | 2,705$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.38 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 2,168$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 56c | 2,032$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.81 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f82…9ae1backed Under | 57c | 1,700$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.62 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 44c | 1,250$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 56c | 1,233$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.48 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 33c | 1,198$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.41 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,110$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.5 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,067$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 56c | 1,028$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.78 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 30c | 818.01$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 45c | 552.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.46 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…8366backed Under | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 74c | 525$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.25 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 500.35$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 27c | 498.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 36c | 444$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 59c | 414.92$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 399$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 69c | 362$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 345.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 63c | 299.08$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 255$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Over | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 249.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 59c | 203.93$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 144.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 44c | 142.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 56c | 123.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 72c | 116.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 77c | 98.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 24c | 92.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 53c | 89.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Over | 71c | 84.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 57c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 59c | 70.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 35c | 65.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Over | 65c | 63.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 69c | 53.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 56c | 47.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 45c | 41.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…e388backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 60c | 34.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 44c | 31.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f1…7933backed Under | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Under | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 63c | 27.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed Over | 72c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…9548backed Over | 73c | 22.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Over | 72c | 17.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.