MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c52e775bdb99dd62cc7796dbac98d313d799830be29f0351d66b3d58527cdb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 37,241$20,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,091.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 17,206$8,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,132.6 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 46c | 16,724$7,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,026.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 10,663$5,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,442.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 61c | 5,885$3,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314.48 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 49c | 4,268$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.71 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 2,855$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 2,121$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 49c | 2,026$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.14 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…0bf3backed Under | 66c | 1,631$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.23 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 55c | 1,299$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.79 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 1,278$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 56c | 1,260$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 41c | 977.24$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 50c | 774.85$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.75 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 48c | 739.41$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.57 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked Under | 66c | 483.33$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 48c | 472$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.82 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 48c | 420.21$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.49 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…8366backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 50c | 320.01$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 65c | 293.97$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 62c | 282.34$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 50c | 162.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 50c | 162.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 49c | 125.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 38c | 117.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 39c | 116.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 113.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 78c | 112.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 39c | 104.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 41c | 101.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 100.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 49c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 39c | 67.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Under | 25c | 65.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Over | 49c | 62.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 39c | 59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Over | 52c | 53.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 54c | 50.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 54c | 48.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Under | 66c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 34c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 42c | 42.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 40c | 41.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Over | 46c | 39.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 44c | 36.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a6…ef45backed Over | 37c | 36.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6b…7d19backed Over | 51c | 35.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 41c | 34.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 56c | 33.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 42c | 26.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 25.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Over | 49c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 48c | 24.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 60c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 51c | 23.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…b936backed Under | 56c | 20.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.