Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2be859935de3d6047c5b223a575a44b068fb9af0e01c5cc36d61a8e5cf46a252

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Juventus FCof Juventus FC, Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Resolved: Jan 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,301 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Juventus FC	31c	8,767$2,676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,090.62	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7087…c61fbacked Juventus FC	16c	6,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,040	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	77c	4,165$3,206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,206.2	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	68c	3,001$2,041 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,040.68	108	45.4%49 W · 59 L	-9.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	68c	1,689$1,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,148.52	161	44.1%71 W · 90 L	-13.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	73c	1,414$1,029 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029.43	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Juventus FC	28c	1,250$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$899.6	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Juventus FC	27c	1,000$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$730	219	38.4%84 W · 135 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Juventus FC	28c	677.78$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489.37	239	47.7%114 W · 125 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Juventus FC	30c	421.56$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$296.36	139	31.7%44 W · 95 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	251.16$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.11	597	41.7%249 W · 348 L	-18.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Juventus FC	31c	205.55$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.55	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ac2…a0a9backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	189.53$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.67	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	48cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b80…d023backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	158.57$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	61cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	152.34$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2683…2be7backed Juventus FC	33c	151.52$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.52	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	147.88$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.04	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Juventus FC	32c	146.99$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.06	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ab…f313backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	73c	136.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.73per pick	73cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	115.94$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Juventus FC	26c	111$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.1	217	45.6%99 W · 118 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	72c	105.92$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.26	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed Juventus FC	33c	103.03$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.03	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Juventus FC	31c	100$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	100$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ef…c822backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	100$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+4.0wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	99.99$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	117	50.4%59 W · 58 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	72c	89.25$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.26	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	71c	82$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.22	240	47.1%113 W · 127 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…d976backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	71.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a75…e444backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	68c	70.04$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.64	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.3wins	-0.29per pick	42cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed Juventus FC	32c	62.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.5	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	60cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Juventus FC	32c	62.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.5	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe013…1ddcbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	73c	61.62$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.88	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	76c	49$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.36	159	38.4%61 W · 98 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Juventus FC	30c	47$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.9	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4164…3b17backed Juventus FC	31c	46.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.36	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+79.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98e…e2ccbacked Juventus FC	31c	43.06$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.71	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Juventus FC	32c	42$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.73	68	17.6%12 W · 56 L	-8.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb702…790fbacked Juventus FC	30c	38.03$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.62	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+55%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e56…53dbbacked Juventus FC	28c	37.43$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.95	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+108%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…3c32backed Juventus FC	32c	37.16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.27	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd924…d06dbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	68c	36.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.18per pick	63cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5949…c8f3backed Juventus FC	32c	34.53$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.33per pick	50cpaid	+66%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	67c	33$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.11	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14c3…0262backed Juventus FC	32c	31.25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.25	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	68c	30.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.41	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-5.0wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x850a…568abacked Juventus FC	34c	30$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa906…ff14backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	28.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b47…2448backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	28.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…30b6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	23.19$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e5…118cbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	22.88$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e0…9586backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	22.86$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96cd…814abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	21.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…ce65backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	21.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	61cpaid	-41%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd94c…57f3backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	21.17$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2413…2442backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	60cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8762…4681backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	74c	19.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	18.91$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa096…31d6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	18.84$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x263e…2976backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	71c	18.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f6…1361backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	18.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-2.0wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44f6…2c1ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	18.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef2b…4c15backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	18.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4864…80f3backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	74c	18.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	75cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacff…4176backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	17.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	61cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dff…d2d1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	17.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…0041backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	71c	16.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	72cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b2…d48bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	69c	16.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2346…48d0backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	70c	15.53$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	72c	15.28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	132	46.2%61 W · 71 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeecc…5cacbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica	71c	15.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af0…bff1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	71c	14.56$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	57cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5372…bac1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica	71c	14.51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)this page
Juventus FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Juventus FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
Juventus FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Under won
Juventus FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
Juventus FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event