Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bob Brooks be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bfd24a798b164c430b5dd05603036226820016f971a6b0324fce3e23873d3a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 72c | 728.98$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 6c | 430$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 65c | 367.82$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 4c | 298$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 67c | 294.01$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 6c | 212.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 62c | 209.56$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 64c | 205.01$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 60c | 186$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 7c | 177.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 60c | 177.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 173.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 15c | 107.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 71c | 99.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 58c | 74.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 69c | 65.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 59.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 30c | 38.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 37.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 61c | 29.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked Yes | 70c | 27.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ded…e26ebacked Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bob Brooks be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?this page
- Will Carol Obando-Derstine be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?No won
- Will Lamont McClure be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?No won
- Will Lewis Shupe be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?No won
- Will Ryan Crosswell be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.