TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b78…473dbacked Over79c5,085$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.5124766%163 W · 84 L+27.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over21c4,140$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,264.895,76245.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L+94.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe4…3cbdbacked Under2c4,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-93.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf8…8e52backed Under20c3,905$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+201.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed Over79c3,781$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.620665%134 W · 72 L+24.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+20.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4b29…bed9backed Under19c3,429$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under70c3,300$2,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,306.582434.5%284 W · 540 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82e1…eeb3backed Under21c2,715$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+201.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over77c2,599$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.3121765.4%142 W · 75 L+24.1wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb76b…d1f0backed Under1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256232.3%20 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf90…cd20backed Under25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over40c1,624$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.5914829.7%44 W · 104 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under61c1,563$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.431,32857%757 W · 571 L+57.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Under1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014530.3%44 W · 101 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under63c1,326$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.353,75538.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270c…f66fbacked Under4c742.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.27150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under55c691.08$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.248,11248.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L+27.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over30c663.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.82552%13 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d5…36bfbacked Over58c639.98$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.597741.6%32 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x625a…f957backed Under21c571.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+220.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under2c512$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.241,53745.2%695 W · 842 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under45c460.25$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6431136.7%114 W · 197 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Over75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758887.5%77 W · 11 L+19.9wins+0.23per pick65cpaid+42%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x48fb…ced4backed Under12c280$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under66c197.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6840651%207 W · 199 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69d0…6732backed Under60c166.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…8c41backed Under34c132.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over54c111.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8851750.7%262 W · 255 L+28.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7098…1d97backed Under59c108.38$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.78837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-43.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under52c96.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0213149.6%65 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2deb…a787backed Over42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.433438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Under62c51.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.753246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Over54c46.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2918140.3%73 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Under62c46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.524037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-29.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under31c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5389846.1%414 W · 484 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over42c36.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2695155.8%531 W · 420 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Under65c29.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Under46c28.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134938.8%19 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked Under62c26.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.63641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Under62c24.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.251741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over51c20.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2389645.4%407 W · 489 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40b9…a596backed Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb619…49c9backed Under52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.456256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x612a…b8a5backed Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c1…b35ebacked Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ed1…033abacked Under79c13.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.