South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c0772a71041de9f20c4797eac1a402205952323e1434c61655872268ac2de55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 79c | 5,085$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.51 | 247 | 66%163 W · 84 L | +27.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 4,140$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,264.89 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…3cbdbacked Under | 2c | 4,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf8…8e52backed Under | 20c | 3,905$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 79c | 3,781$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.6 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…bed9backed Under | 19c | 3,429$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 70c | 3,300$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.5 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e1…eeb3backed Under | 21c | 2,715$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 77c | 2,599$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.31 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Under | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…cd20backed Under | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 40c | 1,624$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.59 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 1,563$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.43 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Under | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 63c | 1,326$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.35 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f66fbacked Under | 4c | 742.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 691.08$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.24 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 30c | 663.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 58c | 639.98$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.59 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…f957backed Under | 21c | 571.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +220.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 2c | 512$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 45c | 460.25$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x48fb…ced4backed Under | 12c | 280$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 66c | 197.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.68 | 406 | 51%207 W · 199 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…6732backed Under | 60c | 166.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…8c41backed Under | 34c | 132.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 54c | 111.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…1d97backed Under | 59c | 108.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 52c | 96.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 62c | 51.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 54c | 46.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Under | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 42c | 36.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 62c | 26.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Under | 62c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…a596backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…b8a5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…b35ebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…033abacked Under | 79c | 13.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: CA Tigre O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: Club Nacional de Football O/U 0.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: Club Nacional de Football O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Tigre (-1.5)CA Tigre won
- Spread: CA Tigre (-2.5)CA Tigre won
- Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)CA Tigre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.