South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac81bb81b3fc3cec53145d39e6892d16a0a650b6259fa5f5c160cda7a59ac925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,721$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 92 | 7.6%7 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 62c | 3,696$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.48 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Under | 37c | 1,912$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.27 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 39c | 1,597$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.17 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…59b3backed Under | 29c | 1,237$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 71c | 1,211$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.8 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 884.7$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.71 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580b…0522backed Under | 39c | 510.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 41c | 395.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.52 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4631backed Over | 58c | 306.31$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 75c | 264.29$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 26c | 262.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Over | 59c | 246.1$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 41c | 243.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 76c | 229.74$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 224.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 62c | 209.31$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 27c | 205$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 200.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 23c | 171.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 60c | 163.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 76c | 159.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 59c | 120.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 75c | 116$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 60c | 103.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 40c | 81.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 41c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 36.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Over | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…8f52backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 59c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…12dabacked Over | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 61c | 21.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…b4f7backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Over | 70c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…df5dbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 1.5this page
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: CA Tigre O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: Club Nacional de Football O/U 0.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: Club Nacional de Football O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Tigre (-1.5)CA Tigre won
- Spread: CA Tigre (-2.5)CA Tigre won
- Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)CA Tigre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.