South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x607901cb30f4b617b55c69b91f71ce36b98f34e011eab5cf9d72c69e5ff2803f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 27c | 3,641$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.81 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 73c | 2,486$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.36 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 2,262$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.7 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 29c | 1,315$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.17 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 69c | 1,215$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.28 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 16c | 1,156$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.03 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 72c | 960.17$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.73 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 29c | 944$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.76 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 71c | 574.28$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.37 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 76c | 550.92$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Over | 15c | 499.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Under | 69c | 434.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Over | 27c | 389.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 32c | 295.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 20c | 262.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 15c | 223.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Over | 29c | 133.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 24c | 131.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…244dbacked Over | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 71c | 119.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Over | 14c | 93.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 77c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 71c | 42.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…12dabacked Under | 79c | 36.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Under | 72c | 30.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 75c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 71c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 3.5this page
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: CA Tigre O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: Club Nacional de Football O/U 0.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: Club Nacional de Football O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. CA Tigre: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Tigre (-1.5)CA Tigre won
- Spread: CA Tigre (-2.5)CA Tigre won
- Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)CA Tigre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.