TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shopify Rebellionof Dignitas, Shopify Rebellion
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,874
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,874 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked Dignitas44c18,316$7,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,972.5296048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb66a…800ebacked Shopify Rebellion60c13,730$8,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,471.416549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Shopify Rebellion55c8,203$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,702.922,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Dignitas45c6,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70013040.8%53 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ea…832fbacked Dignitas2c5,918$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Dignitas43c5,600$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40896250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Shopify Rebellion57c5,258$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,258.0689943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Dignitas40c5,000$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99044047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Shopify Rebellion56c4,464$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.2991854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shopify Rebellion56c3,939$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.552,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Shopify Rebellion61c3,285$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.8133857.1%193 W · 145 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Dignitas35c3,119$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.2385046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Dignitas17c3,006$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.121,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed4d…6a0bbacked Shopify Rebellion56c2,940$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.629637.5%36 W · 60 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Shopify Rebellion59c2,036$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.131,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Dignitas39c2,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7701,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Dignitas19c1,862$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.691,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Shopify Rebellion56c1,683$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.573237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Dignitas42c1,654$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.8115153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Dignitas22c1,600$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35695951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Shopify Rebellion56c1,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed Shopify Rebellion56c1,430$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.2126443.6%115 W · 149 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Shopify Rebellion55c1,285$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.0517041.8%71 W · 99 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Dignitas46c1,280$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.845041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Dignitas44c1,253$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.521,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Dignitas39c1,183$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.31,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc67b…b3d8backed Shopify Rebellion60c1,170$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.2224359.3%144 W · 99 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Dignitas46c1,140$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.467250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Dignitas32c1,082$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.0969539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Dignitas38c1,024$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.171,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Dignitas40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Shopify Rebellion55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45086251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed Dignitas42c966.44$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.115139.2%20 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Shopify Rebellion55c954.69$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.8750848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7689…af2abacked Dignitas5c899.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9817535.4%62 W · 113 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Dignitas42c750$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Dignitas40c742.61$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.8218139.2%71 W · 110 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Shopify Rebellion59c717.01$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.981,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Shopify Rebellion69c700$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21860053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Shopify Rebellion63c700$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25663161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Dignitas45c700$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31551160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e23…761dbacked Dignitas38c666.39$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.2620537.6%77 W · 128 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Shopify Rebellion71c635$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4742250%211 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Shopify Rebellion56c612.23$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3974250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Dignitas9c600$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5645937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked Shopify Rebellion70c598$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.868248.8%40 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Shopify Rebellion53c570$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.91,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…3668backed Shopify Rebellion56c539.07$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.0711246.4%52 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Shopify Rebellion70c520.11$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5339851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Shopify Rebellion73c513$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5836946.1%170 W · 199 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e8…f78fbacked Shopify Rebellion64c500$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.74383.7%36 W · 7 L+8.2wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Dignitas33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16537039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Dignitas45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22586649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Dignitas48c487$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8322349.3%110 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Dignitas9c456.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.052,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Dignitas45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed Shopify Rebellion60c443.07$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.0739663.4%251 W · 145 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Shopify Rebellion70c434.08$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2213761.3%84 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed Dignitas42c432$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2821147.9%101 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Dignitas38c430$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.439246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9892…8137backed Shopify Rebellion65c420$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.57368.5%50 W · 23 L+12.3wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+21.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Dignitas48c419.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5956341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e9…7b35backed Shopify Rebellion63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1486675.8%50 W · 16 L+11.5wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x30f1…e639backed Dignitas27c400$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.035251.9%27 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Shopify Rebellion73c395.95$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9541060.5%248 W · 162 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Shopify Rebellion57c350$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.556650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a7…6f38backed Shopify Rebellion63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1117466.2%49 W · 25 L+12.4wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+18.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Shopify Rebellion56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1321250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Dignitas44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed Shopify Rebellion59c261.49$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4920756%116 W · 91 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Shopify Rebellion60c240.3$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.128647.7%41 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Shopify Rebellion57c230$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.926859.7%160 W · 108 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Dignitas37c226.58$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.882450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Dignitas37c226.58$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.882441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed Dignitas45c223.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Dignitas45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Shopify Rebellion58c191.07$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.251,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Shopify Rebellion75c181$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0359952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Dignitas16c180$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.833124.2%80 W · 251 L-33.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Shopify Rebellion56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Shopify Rebellion56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5718542.2%78 W · 107 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Shopify Rebellion57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Dignitas37c169.81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.292245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Dignitas48c164.85$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.131,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e8…8435backed Dignitas36c164.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.261275%9 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+85.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8112…4129backed Dignitas43c163.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7013065.4%85 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Dignitas46c163.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Dignitas37c162.48$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.762951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8584…6b7dbacked Dignitas36c161.83$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.26633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-50.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Dignitas36c155.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.211838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Dignitas41c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.54553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7605…e225backed Shopify Rebellion64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.25468.5%37 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Dignitas44c149.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.063,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Shopify Rebellion56c141$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.349556.8%54 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f8…4d2abacked Dignitas12c135.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165143.1%22 W · 29 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed Shopify Rebellion79c126.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6767057.5%385 W · 285 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Dignitas43c115.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ee9…20a2backed Shopify Rebellion55c114.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.612349.6%61 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x709f…a1e4backed Shopify Rebellion71c112.41$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.139264.1%59 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Shopify Rebellion66c108.76$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.382,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.