Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c8b80bb3eeca491999e5557a9adae30b10c370fa4bf0b9a7a625bbd06971e76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 36c | 914.75$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.39 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 5c | 596.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 424.32$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 62c | 308.64$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 7c | 249.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 45c | 214.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 194.78$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 189.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 63c | 158.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 147.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 144.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 141.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 124.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 94.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 43c | 91.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 21c | 87.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 86.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 83.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 77.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 62c | 76.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 71.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 70.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 39c | 69.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 63.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 57c | 61.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 25c | 50.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 40c | 50.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 41c | 49.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 38c | 48.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 43.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 68c | 43.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 42.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 33c | 42.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 40.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…e2c2backed Yes | 56c | 36.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 41c | 33.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 32.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 30.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked No | 61c | 30.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 39c | 29.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 28.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 38c | 26.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…9418backed Yes | 61c | 23.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc90b…7190backed No | 59c | 22.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 18.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.