Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93b1f003dc1bfda508a62d85c736666f32756901ab6a5aff75dcd9ef227d9c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 31c | 543.69$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.29 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 412.37$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 12c | 306$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 305.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 12c | 280.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 236.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 199.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 191.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 184.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 48c | 160.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 155.59$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 142$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 114.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed No | 63c | 101.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 100.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 94.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 67c | 88.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 30c | 85.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 32c | 72.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 70.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 58.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 56.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 32c | 53.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 53.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 52.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 32c | 47.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 67c | 46.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 24c | 43.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 29c | 42.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 26c | 42.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 37.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 35.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 70c | 34.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ed…548fbacked Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 31.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 51c | 31.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 30.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 26.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 68c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 66c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 68c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 72c | 20.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 67c | 17.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 16.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.