MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ca8da6554a8016c9cf1b4e0524cee561efa05ea6b848bb88d1398dbaba6ed9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 6,733$4,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,224.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 33c | 6,154$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 4,523$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 4,416$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.11 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 537.5$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 64c | 507$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 505.67$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 51c | 254$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 56c | 123.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 51c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 50.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…ced7backed Under | 65c | 39.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cf…ad38backed Under | 65c | 36.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb130…7767backed Under | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…2fbabacked Under | 65c | 32.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…cacfbacked Under | 65c | 31.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…8a41backed Under | 65c | 30.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 45c | 29.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed Under | 65c | 29.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…436cbacked Under | 65c | 29.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…ac4abacked Under | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…061cbacked Under | 65c | 28.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…7599backed Under | 65c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…ab5dbacked Under | 65c | 27.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…a082backed Under | 65c | 27.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…093cbacked Under | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…e37bbacked Under | 65c | 26.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…28bdbacked Under | 65c | 25.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…7920backed Under | 65c | 24.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…4843backed Under | 65c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Under | 65c | 23.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…b21dbacked Under | 65c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…b52dbacked Under | 65c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…5025backed Under | 65c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…9923backed Under | 65c | 22.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed Under | 65c | 22.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…cffdbacked Under | 65c | 22.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…d255backed Under | 65c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…13b7backed Under | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…7ed8backed Under | 65c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed Under | 65c | 21.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…32dbbacked Under | 65c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40c1…6fc2backed Under | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…6ed2backed Under | 65c | 20.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…a945backed Under | 65c | 20.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 56c | 20.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…c7edbacked Under | 65c | 19.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…ab7cbacked Under | 65c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…e8c1backed Under | 65c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…7551backed Under | 65c | 16.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…bba5backed Under | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.