MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb91503b90d5c1bb448f438035391dbfde370712cdff29421942848aa2ebe7a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,360$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 46c | 987.99$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.48 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 706.52$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.97 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 656.01$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 53c | 544.11$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.73 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 37c | 453.51$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.71 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 447$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 388.69$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 374.92$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 47c | 250.52$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 229.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 53c | 204.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 54c | 201.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 47c | 164.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 52c | 128.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Under | 52c | 107.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 77.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 70.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 50c | 68.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 50c | 62.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 39c | 50.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 41c | 44.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 51c | 42.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 61c | 42.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 42c | 41.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…28cdbacked Under | 55c | 34.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf354…5645backed Under | 55c | 33.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…1ea2backed Under | 54c | 32.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…0b33backed Under | 55c | 32.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…581fbacked Under | 55c | 31.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…35a1backed Under | 55c | 30.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed Under | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…34f0backed Under | 55c | 28.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed Under | 55c | 28.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Under | 53c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…eeadbacked Under | 55c | 28.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 26.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…c0a0backed Under | 55c | 25.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed Under | 55c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…0694backed Under | 55c | 23.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 79c | 21.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 53c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 656 | 51.2%336 W · 320 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.