MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b91ec93cc52c3b83a6f2fc747435f4006d77c33832b3d245c1dc2462ab70d8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 6,219$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.7 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 5,556$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,555.56 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 3,106$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.67 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 2,975$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.75 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 2,401$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.49 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 1,066$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.69 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 975.65$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.41 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 961$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.08 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 491.87$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.12 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 457$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 418.3$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.71 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 417.15$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.97 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 377.71$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 234$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.9 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 226.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.87 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 220.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.19 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 188.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 156.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 143.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 126$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 119.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 105.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 103.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 101.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 84.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 68.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 62.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…61b6backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 43.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 40.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 39.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…01d8backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 36.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 35.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 34.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…89dabacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 34.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 32.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 30.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 28.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 26.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 22.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 19.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…eecebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 15.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.