TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals39c6,219$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.78,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad64…2f33backed Tampa Bay Rays36c5,556$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,555.566429.7%19 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays48c3,106$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.6712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals60c2,975$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.7511,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Tampa Bay Rays51c2,401$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.4988153.7%473 W · 408 L+40.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals37c1,066$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.699,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals62c975.65$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.416,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Tampa Bay Rays72c961$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.0891252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6871…e9dcbacked Washington Nationals60c491.87$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.126139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals31c457$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.434,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Tampa Bay Rays36c418.3$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.712839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals64c417.15$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.972,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays40c377.71$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.934,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals73c234$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.95,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays40c226.45$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.874,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974d…bd82backed Tampa Bay Rays36c220.19$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.194443.2%19 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15020138.8%78 W · 123 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e4a…5ba6backed Tampa Bay Rays39c188.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2811542.6%49 W · 66 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals27c156.07$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.142,17239.9%866 W · 1,306 L+1.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Washington Nationals61c143.02$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2499947.5%475 W · 524 L-3.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Washington Nationals37c126$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.141,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals61c119.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.792,41349.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Tampa Bay Rays39c105.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1347549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals74c103.72$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.313,46051.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L+107.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Tampa Bay Rays39c102.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5654951.2%281 W · 268 L+29.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Washington Nationals70c101.17$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8227652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.242,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Tampa Bay Rays39c84.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6216144.1%71 W · 90 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals37c68.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.855,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays38c62.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.532,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals34c61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.593,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Tampa Bay Rays36c59.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3985949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals20c52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,72850.4%871 W · 857 L+57.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe997…61b6backed Washington Nationals29c43.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.731030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals58c41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.692,14950.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals70c40.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.371,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0846854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals60c39.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0672154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Washington Nationals39c36.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6e5…01d8backed Washington Nationals61c36.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0340%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals51c35.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.054,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Tampa Bay Rays30c34.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2442047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f48…89dabacked Washington Nationals29c34.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays51c32.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.066,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Washington Nationals53c30.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8753644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Washington Nationals43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Washington Nationals63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.939250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e20…5cf9backed Washington Nationals48c29.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415048%72 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Washington Nationals46c28.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4211255.4%62 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Tampa Bay Rays39c26.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9311153.2%59 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Tampa Bay Rays67c22.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.641,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked Tampa Bay Rays72c19.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3811951.3%61 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250f…4fc6backed Washington Nationals60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213025.4%33 W · 97 L-17.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd320…eecebacked Tampa Bay Rays69c15.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.