MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb31651a5b2535b2e228abba3b42bbe6e62796b9617490bc21981d492254a65c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 625.02$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.3 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 504.28$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.11 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 269.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 181.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Washington Nationals | 32c | 152.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 802 | 43.3%347 W · 455 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 114.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 112.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 6,132 | 55.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L | +346.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 105.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 83.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3,467 | 51.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L | +105.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 80.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 64.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 63.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 56.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 49.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2,597 | 61.5%1,596 W · 1,001 L | +72.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 38.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,150 | 31.7%365 W · 785 L | -95.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 33.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 349 | 43.6%152 W · 197 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.