Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cb5ad675e9ac14e00b3754537f6fb8495ac8779b912d6faad42b40c20804ada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 2,467$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 1,428$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 61c | 1,126$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.73 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 717.28$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.12 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 60c | 547.39$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.39 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 30c | 490.22$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.33 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 58c | 485.68$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.27 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 403.38$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 400.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 388.33$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 45c | 378.37$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 357.21$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 30c | 332.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.45 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 51c | 272.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.62 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 25c | 271.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 257.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 46c | 213.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 193.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 185.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.11 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 58c | 171.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 170.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 170.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 55c | 168.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 78c | 158$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes | 52c | 151.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 15c | 148.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.81 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 145.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 49c | 145.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 140.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 38c | 125.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 120.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 100.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Yes | 46c | 96.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 54c | 95.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 89.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 84.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…d113backed No | 79c | 80.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 80.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 52c | 67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 36c | 66.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 62.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 47c | 61.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 42c | 59.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6b…7d15backed Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 50c | 56.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 55.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 41c | 54.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 68c | 53.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 52.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked No | 68c | 50.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 40c | 46.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 44.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 65c | 44.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 53c | 44.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 43.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 43.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 52c | 42.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 42.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 41.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 43c | 41.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 61c | 39.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 38.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 37.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 60c | 36.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 35.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked No | 79c | 33.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 32.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 39c | 30.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 79c | 30.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 51c | 28.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 28.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 62c | 27.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4719…0e32backed No | 60c | 26.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 55c | 24.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 51c | 24.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 53c | 24.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 53c | 24.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 21.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 63c | 21.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…b0e9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 19.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.