TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof MOUZ, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$241,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,090 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dcf…c556backed MOUZ44c25,000$11,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,940.0333746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked BetBoom Team64c17,591$11,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,214.6755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed MOUZ37c13,345$4,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,449.689636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56bf…5c19backed BetBoom Team0c13,040$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.04825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed BetBoom Team61c9,797$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed BetBoom Team59c6,079$3,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,586.8414253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked BetBoom Team62c5,995$3,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,704.6786949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked BetBoom Team57c3,488$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.166150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed MOUZ41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,77013441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked BetBoom Team64c2,542$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.567550.7%38 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed BetBoom Team52c2,262$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.4360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed BetBoom Team63c2,000$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.559749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed BetBoom Team45c1,867$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.2346649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked MOUZ61c1,651$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.8853451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked MOUZ37c1,528$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.4136041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87058744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ71c1,370$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.0792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked MOUZ38c1,335$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.1918746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked MOUZ36c1,274$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81718156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ38c1,250$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ36c1,237$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.5766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked BetBoom Team66c1,230$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.8236759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed MOUZ51c1,206$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.379447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed BetBoom Team39c1,164$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.429444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ41c1,071$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.661,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed MOUZ57c997.85$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.5756548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ37c979.99$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.2977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ37c790$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.71,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked BetBoom Team62c750$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked BetBoom Team64c685.94$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4391,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team55c683.58$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.81,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed BetBoom Team58c679.04$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.5251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed MOUZ60c668.46$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9614251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed BetBoom Team63c632.95$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.3315452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked BetBoom Team63c599.98$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.9923653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1942…2c75backed BetBoom Team38c560.53$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2135339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked MOUZ40c555.55$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.0924137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ38c555.29$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.641,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed BetBoom Team5c550.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.436132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ38c503.17$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.612,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked BetBoom Team55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27532652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed BetBoom Team61c492.05$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…8c08backed BetBoom Team30c489.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.24748.9%23 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+27.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed MOUZ41c463.18$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.7150832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ36c460$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.488539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked BetBoom Team58c452.86$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.553844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed MOUZ40c440$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26465441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed BetBoom Team50c430$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.263032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed BetBoom Team42c409.52$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17254753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed MOUZ30c409$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.38749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed MOUZ63c403.38$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.2655457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed BetBoom Team55c399.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22017353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ58c399.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9960646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed BetBoom Team62c399.98$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9833549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed MOUZ38c398.9$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.3244645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed MOUZ45c395.8$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1931245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed MOUZ38c394.74$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.7450053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked MOUZ37c383.2$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.2416725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked BetBoom Team47c380$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3618362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked MOUZ75c370$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.736851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed MOUZ39c348.22$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.153036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked BetBoom Team58c333.33$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3322954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked MOUZ42c333.33$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.3336654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked BetBoom Team61c329.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team53c319.25$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.72,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ64c307.77$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9238049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed BetBoom Team42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12661548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed BetBoom Team34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed MOUZ49c250$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5955147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed MOUZ71c247.48$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3745046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed BetBoom Team69c210.12$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0246451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed MOUZ63c204.06$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2957654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed BetBoom Team56c201.6$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked MOUZ37c201.14$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1452649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked MOUZ40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12025147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed BetBoom Team44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8897142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed MOUZ38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12449455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked MOUZ37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12645052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked BetBoom Team30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607225%18 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55e5…df30backed MOUZ52c194.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.081464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked BetBoom Team63c183.83$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9516550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed BetBoom Team56c180.02$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5648352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed BetBoom Team59c169.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.333644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed BetBoom Team64c163.97$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8111549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed MOUZ61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9319162.8%120 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked BetBoom Team65c156.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.512348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed BetBoom Team63c155.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.758251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked BetBoom Team63c148.24$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.426753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed BetBoom Team51c137.04$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7014832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x893d…d65bbacked MOUZ39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.211747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed BetBoom Team40c125.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.956131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed BetBoom Team12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c6…d2d6backed BetBoom Team65c120.21$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.748445.2%38 W · 46 L-9.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed BetBoom Team48c119.51$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.871,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4462…7807backed MOUZ42c118.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9512650.8%64 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MOUZ75c117.26$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3186659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked BetBoom Team63c110.23$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4613247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ35c110.12$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.051,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed MOUZ44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.831,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BetBoom Team56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.