World Politics · resolved market
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cdb1fde409cb293b40ddf34750b6b495f2ae6cda3c48c646e8b11f588f3923f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 7c | 11,291$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.47 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…1cecbacked No | 6c | 8,251$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 8c | 6,635$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.18 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 5,914$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 5,476$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed No | 3c | 5,147$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 4,050$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf76e…9629backed No | 4c | 3,097$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 1c | 2,600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 1c | 2,266$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,053$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed No | 2c | 920$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…4226backed No | 10c | 754.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…f90bbacked No | 1c | 754$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…b97bbacked No | 2c | 747.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 745.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 607.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…3421backed No | 8c | 587.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d47…30aabacked No | 5c | 527.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 6c | 506.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1008…d2efbacked No | 2c | 472.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 10c | 261.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 13c | 242.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…db9fbacked Yes | 80c | 163.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e13…5e36backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 76c | 126.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf91…b57abacked Yes | 78c | 96.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 11c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4d…daeabacked Yes | 79c | 33.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…9d4dbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd3…9e9cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election?this page
- Will Liberal win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election?No won
- Will NPC win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election?No won
- Will NUP win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election?No won
- Will Nacionalista win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election?No won
- Will PDP win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election?No won
- Will PFP win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Philippine general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.