NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d3284eff21a71ec7640d37f649fdff06cbbd9e0f808a6d71f4baf5e354af98a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,096 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 1,614$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.84 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 18c | 729.6$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.97 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…0feebacked Over | 52c | 725.12$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.06 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 399.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 355.16$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 50c | 200.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 48c | 195.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 47c | 187.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 183.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 62c | 89.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…270fbacked Over | 59c | 50.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Under | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 42c | 40.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…3fb1backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Over | 51c | 32.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 67c | 25.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…65e7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-10.5)Hornets won
- Grizzlies vs. HornetsHornets won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Hornets (-16.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-17.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-18.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-20.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-21.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-22.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-23.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Hornets (-24.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Hornets (-25.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.