NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87404a4c1c080d6252f253f26cbf4e8c803fb53cd6d98f78b86a8832da391b67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,266 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 25,000$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 22,697$11,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,318.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 3,073$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.36 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…f708backed Over | 49c | 2,352$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.5 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 1,881$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.67 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656f…76b9backed Under | 50c | 1,747$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…4767backed Over | 49c | 1,134$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.66 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Over | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 14c | 1,002$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 811.68$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.23 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 804$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.96 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…8acebacked Over | 49c | 619$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.31 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…2653backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 162 | 49.4%80 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 546.76$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.71 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 322$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 51c | 229.51$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 45.7%134 W · 159 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 51c | 135.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…063bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 59c | 86.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 85.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 57c | 79.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 50c | 72.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 62.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 55c | 48.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…270fbacked Over | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 51c | 35.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Under | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 51c | 29.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…405abacked Under | 50c | 27.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 45c | 26.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 26.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-10.5)Hornets won
- Grizzlies vs. HornetsHornets won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Hornets (-16.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-17.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-18.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-20.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-21.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-22.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-23.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Hornets (-24.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Hornets (-25.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.