NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d35b0023e877fa933e686b968f03cddb0733acd27552178a123d993529e6780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,267 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 64,470$29,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,286.09 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Hornets | 54c | 39,230$21,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,937.62 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 53c | 13,866$7,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,581.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Hornets | 51c | 12,479$6,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,114.94 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hornets | 53c | 11,103$5,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,195.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Hornets | 52c | 9,989$5,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,794.93 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 8,874$4,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,364.54 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 4,408$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.72 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 4,316$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.26 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Grizzlies | 51c | 2,730$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.3 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 52c | 2,419$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.2 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies | 49c | 2,170$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.92 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Grizzlies | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…ddcabacked Grizzlies | 52c | 1,938$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Hornets | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Hornets | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.99 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hornets | 52c | 1,369$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.62 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Grizzlies | 47c | 890$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.3 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 55c | 804.09$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hornets | 55c | 638.65$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.76 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…8acebacked Grizzlies | 48c | 599.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…8a18backed Hornets | 53c | 597$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.59 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Hornets | 52c | 532.78$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.73 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hornets | 58c | 437.09$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.8 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Grizzlies | 50c | 300.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.22 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 300.05$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Hornets | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Grizzlies | 49c | 269$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…d2e2backed Hornets | 51c | 233$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…dda7backed Hornets | 51c | 219.8$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 242 | 47.1%114 W · 128 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Grizzlies | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Hornets | 51c | 195.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Grizzlies | 47c | 159.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Grizzlies | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Grizzlies | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…39e2backed Hornets | 51c | 119$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Grizzlies | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 180 | 54.4%98 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Grizzlies | 45c | 110.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Hornets | 51c | 107$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Hornets | 60c | 94.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Hornets | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed Hornets | 52c | 89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Grizzlies | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 48.3%86 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Grizzlies | 39c | 65.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Hornets | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies | 42c | 55.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 55.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Grizzlies | 50c | 54.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Grizzlies | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 51.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Hornets | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…4020backed Hornets | 55c | 43.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Hornets | 53c | 42.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 51c | 42.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Grizzlies | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Grizzlies | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Hornets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +13.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Hornets | 52c | 31.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Grizzlies | 49c | 31.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…d11fbacked Hornets | 61c | 31.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…0783backed Hornets | 50c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies | 46c | 27.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Grizzlies | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Grizzlies | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Grizzlies | 47c | 24.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Hornets | 53c | 24.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-17.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-10.5)Hornets won
- Grizzlies vs. HornetsHornets won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Hornets (-16.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-18.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-20.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-21.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-22.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-23.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Hornets (-24.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Hornets (-25.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.