Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d681ea86deebc06b2d368709c9577efa8e3c59502add063302bd511a7231c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 7c | 413.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 53c | 412.69$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.74 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 349.45$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 348.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 324.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 4c | 301.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 300$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 296.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 253.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 215.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…6090backed No | 8c | 200.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed Yes | 51c | 181.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acb…1e38backed No | 58c | 173.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 11c | 173.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…947cbacked No | 6c | 166.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 64c | 165.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 147.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 50c | 140.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 71c | 129.23$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed No | 50c | 102.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 100.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 17c | 99.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 42c | 98.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 58c | 97.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 47c | 96.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 51c | 93.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 30c | 89.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…0971backed Yes | 75c | 86.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 85.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 81.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 52c | 80.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 62c | 73.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 70.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 60c | 69.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…5f37backed No | 58c | 67.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 49c | 65.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed Yes | 70c | 65.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 56c | 58.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 51.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 44c | 51.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 47c | 51.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…17d5backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 31c | 49.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 69c | 48.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 48c | 47.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 47c | 47.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 46.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 70c | 46.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 51c | 44.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 43.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 57c | 41.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 41.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 60c | 40.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 51c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 50c | 39.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 42c | 38.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 46c | 37.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 52c | 37.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…a201backed No | 63c | 37.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 38c | 36.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 38c | 36.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 31c | 36.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 35.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 35c | 34.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 34.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 30c | 33.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 65c | 29.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 49c | 29.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 29.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 27.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 48c | 27.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 41c | 27.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 44c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 44c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 53c | 24.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 79c | 24.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…882bbacked Yes | 42c | 24.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 21.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…c0d8backed No | 69c | 19.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 58c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 73c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.