Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9752fb15be671136e518f34b048a35806669fc89275f7f3c4fe94baffdf7911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 24c | 486.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 474.79$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 407.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 285.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 26c | 261.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 238.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 228.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 217.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 155.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 36c | 154.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 19c | 149.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 149.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 69c | 141.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 139.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 76c | 133.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 20c | 126.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 115.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 106$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 100.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 99.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 30c | 92.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 75c | 89.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 84.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 74c | 79.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 75c | 77.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 29c | 73.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 22c | 71.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 35c | 70.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 22c | 68.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 62.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 32c | 62.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 75c | 61.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 37c | 61.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 59.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 31c | 58.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 29c | 56.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 49.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 30c | 45.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 31c | 45.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 76c | 43.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 26c | 43.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 70c | 39.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 73c | 39.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 37.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 36.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 31c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 76c | 35.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 34.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 75c | 32.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…6ac7backed No | 64c | 31.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 75c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 75c | 30.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 29.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 28.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 27.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed No | 71c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 76c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf61a…5e39backed No | 75c | 25.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 75c | 23.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 69c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 75c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 70c | 19.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 18.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 75c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 71c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 64c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked No | 75c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.