CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2db677ba0f8b8a06d29686afd353a2d9e2df691632eceaea26c1209fafe6d52a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof Legacy, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7645…3117backed HOTU | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.98 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Legacy | 42c | 1,817$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.24 | 359 | 40.4%145 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed HOTU | 57c | 1,265$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.88 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Legacy | 42c | 1,149$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.6 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Legacy | 43c | 1,123$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.9 | 374 | 45.7%171 W · 203 L | -29.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked HOTU | 46c | 671.49$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.74 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Legacy | 58c | 487.4$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.69 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Legacy | 42c | 386.08$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 428 | 45.6%195 W · 233 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…9a6cbacked Legacy | 42c | 382.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed HOTU | 61c | 232.67$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed HOTU | 57c | 153.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Legacy | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 184 | 43.5%80 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Legacy | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed HOTU | 57c | 107$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…e0c1backed Legacy | 43c | 103.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 365 | 55.9%204 W · 161 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…1f62backed HOTU | 58c | 100.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Legacy | 41c | 90.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Legacy | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…f21bbacked Legacy | 38c | 63.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…c2babacked Legacy | 39c | 62.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 471 | 46.7%220 W · 251 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Legacy | 43c | 57.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…0134backed Legacy | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Legacy | 40c | 47.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 361 | 52.6%190 W · 171 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…27b4backed Legacy | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…c572backed HOTU | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 187 | 50.8%95 W · 92 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…9194backed HOTU | 59c | 41.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed HOTU | 54c | 40.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Legacy | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked HOTU | 59c | 39.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Legacy | 49c | 32.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…476abacked Legacy | 41c | 32.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Legacy | 42c | 27.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…28fabacked Legacy | 39c | 27.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked HOTU | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group BHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU - Map 1 WinnerHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.