TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
HOTUof Legacy, HOTU
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,008,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,009,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,008,196 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 502 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed HOTU52c529,678$276,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253,086.714441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Legacy47c261,301$121,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,813.9122049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Legacy44c100,000$44,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,0006160.7%37 W · 24 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked HOTU54c92,812$50,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,693.3742440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Legacy46c87,478$39,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,814.9975758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Legacy45c30,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,50030340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Legacy44c20,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,8004557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffe1…29aabacked Legacy0c18,801$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Legacy45c18,625$8,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,381.2422354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Legacy55c15,651$8,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,591.4814954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Legacy47c13,554$6,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,331.1464852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Legacy69c13,517$9,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,291.1175452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed HOTU55c8,070$4,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,609.622,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d11…99cabacked Legacy45c7,987$3,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,594.352748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Legacy48c7,884$3,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,815.4378963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Legacy59c7,804$4,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,618.9633452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed HOTU55c6,736$3,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,031.0313546.7%63 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Legacy46c6,540$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.4932552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed HOTU47c6,320$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.346126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Legacy49c5,543$2,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,705.661,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Legacy46c5,259$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,41927658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed HOTU55c5,247$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.649646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Legacy44c5,186$2,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260.5842142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Legacy51c5,000$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5407940.5%32 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed HOTU29c5,000$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,549.8371645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf36…2919backed HOTU55c4,760$2,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Legacy70c4,616$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.984643.5%20 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed HOTU53c4,488$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.1775350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Legacy52c4,428$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.555,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce00…7ce0backed HOTU55c4,399$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.732227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked HOTU28c3,827$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,755.5821424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Legacy73c3,825$2,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,792.2746949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Legacy49c3,671$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.093,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Legacy47c3,622$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.235236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed HOTU30c3,407$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.114051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked HOTU50c3,407$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.851,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked HOTU27c3,373$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.639249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed HOTU30c3,329$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,330.14032.5%13 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa56f…ee5fbacked Legacy47c3,278$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.652962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Legacy54c3,228$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.1556732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Legacy73c3,217$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.3320946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Legacy46c3,214$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.5336742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Legacy54c3,150$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.212,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked HOTU30c3,086$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,148.087425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked HOTU33c3,039$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.4418341%75 W · 108 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed HOTU30c3,000$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.51,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a0…dc24backed HOTU27c3,000$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1902835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Legacy70c2,962$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,073.5746749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cbc…a37bbacked Legacy46c2,815$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.695468.5%37 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Legacy23c2,681$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.562,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Legacy46c2,643$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.320838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c35…877abacked Legacy49c2,558$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Legacy67c2,451$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.3840253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Legacy45c2,443$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1027545.3%34 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed Legacy56c2,440$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.9529858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Legacy67c2,347$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.6684454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa960…9407backed Legacy45c2,333$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.859554.7%52 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8be2…494abacked Legacy52c2,197$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.281764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed HOTU63c2,140$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.0939248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Legacy56c2,084$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.491,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Legacy47c2,080$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.9237445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked HOTU30c2,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4009047.8%43 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed HOTU44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.9913044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Legacy55c1,975$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.1713059.2%77 W · 53 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc953…01bfbacked Legacy46c1,935$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.191266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Legacy70c1,846$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.3515857.6%91 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed HOTU64c1,836$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.3287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed HOTU28c1,790$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.475,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Legacy52c1,765$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.4664046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Legacy45c1,741$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.36137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick36cpaid-89.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Legacy50c1,685$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.4478043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed HOTU53c1,684$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.0857641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Legacy52c1,656$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.0238942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Legacy43c1,630$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.216248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked HOTU63c1,551$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.6329052.4%152 W · 138 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed HOTU30c1,533$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.9678639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked HOTU50c1,531$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.0840140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Legacy46c1,509$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.3548437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Legacy59c1,490$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.3666446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Legacy38c1,484$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.024,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Legacy53c1,471$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.1160748.1%292 W · 315 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Legacy70c1,416$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.9120249%99 W · 103 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Legacy47c1,392$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.511,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked HOTU55c1,389$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Legacy58c1,341$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.5175145.4%341 W · 410 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Legacy46c1,254$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.6613238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Legacy45c1,202$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.454,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Legacy53c1,190$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.072,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed HOTU58c1,184$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.571,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked Legacy60c1,172$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.3124249.2%119 W · 123 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Legacy52c1,163$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.7124055.8%134 W · 106 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked HOTU28c1,160$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.35,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed HOTU30c1,100$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.53354.5%18 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+23.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked HOTU57c1,093$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.2831451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1f…2bd0backed HOTU28c1,071$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.121060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+50.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed HOTU33c1,050$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.514955%82 W · 67 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Legacy79c1,046$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.661,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf400…1c47backed HOTU51c1,018$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Legacy43c1,010$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.852,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Legacy45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4504517.8%8 W · 37 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.