Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dc8578f8bafd9893d5359dbd86e72f6c14843bde559d22e9dacb752b105d90e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 352.16$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 236.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 203.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 79c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4e…37a9backed Yes | 49c | 163$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 161$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…935cbacked Yes | 48c | 152.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 129.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed No | 79c | 127.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 126.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 120.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 84.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 75.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 28c | 69.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 60.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Yes | 41c | 60.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 33c | 60.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 60.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No | 51c | 59.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 57.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 56.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 51c | 55.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 53.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 42c | 49.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 44.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 44.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 69c | 43.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 42.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 41.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked No | 76c | 38.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 60c | 36.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 76c | 31.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 41c | 29.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 58c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 56c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 57c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 80c | 15.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.