Bundesliga · resolved market

Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-14?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dca7ff16cc3d9481c5beb924fe7c20e73fb56c9d60f575c2d3efac3bf70caa2

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $76,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,672 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x83d2…d196backed No	67c	40,068$26,832 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,235.34	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	38c	22,060$8,424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,423.94	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes	32c	7,294$2,305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,305.35	1,355	50.9%690 W · 665 L	+12.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes	33c	6,562$2,179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,179.15	1,681	45.2%759 W · 922 L	+6.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Yes	59c	4,332$2,559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,559.24	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No	66c	3,000$1,980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,019.92	126	51.6%65 W · 61 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes	23c	1,857$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.73	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes	19c	1,640$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.32	77	57.1%44 W · 33 L	+10.5wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+38.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No	40c	1,448$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$868.78	536	45.9%246 W · 290 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Yes	32c	937.5$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-7.1wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	34c	735$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.9	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Yes	33c	700$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231	311	45%140 W · 171 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes	34c	635$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.9	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes	33c	598$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.34	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No	66c	513.44$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.96	624	52.6%328 W · 296 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes	26c	510.01$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.9	1,013	44.5%451 W · 562 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x434d…fba4backed Yes	33c	484.33$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.75	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed No	46c	434.78$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.78	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+46%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Yes	25c	424.14$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.69	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce4d…ade4backed Yes	32c	328.18$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.49	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Yes	33c	311.55$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.81	258	50.4%130 W · 128 L	+6.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes	7c	276.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	817	32.8%268 W · 549 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	33c	250$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd983…d92dbacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+4.9wins	+0.12per pick	24cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6330…1444backed Yes	18c	245.51$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.7	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes	14c	235$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.84	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	+5.1wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+43.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Yes	33c	217.11$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.69	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes	33c	206$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.29	569	51.8%295 W · 274 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Yes	33c	200$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes	33c	195$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.35	192	54.7%105 W · 87 L	+8.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed No	71c	182.32$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.87	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No	75c	176.74$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.4	398	57.5%229 W · 169 L	+20.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Yes	33c	175.9$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.02	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Yes	58c	172.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	45.2%28 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Yes	58c	172.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.14per pick	27cpaid	+73.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed No	69c	163$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.53	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	38c	161.41$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.59	306	47.1%144 W · 162 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Yes	33c	157$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.81	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	40c	155$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.35	491	43.2%212 W · 279 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed Yes	33c	143.48$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.35	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.37per pick	54cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes	35c	137.86$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.19	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fdc…2234backed Yes	28c	132.3$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.01	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Yes	32c	122$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.64	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	28c	120.81$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.61	222	21.6%48 W · 174 L	-34.2wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes	34c	103.56$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.21	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	40cpaid	-27%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57a6…44edbacked No	67c	100.26$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.59	77	55.8%43 W · 34 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes	55c	91.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.39	531	40.7%216 W · 315 L	-13.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x724c…1521backed Yes	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	66cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa283…18dcbacked Yes	33c	90.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes	34c	90$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.29	1,083	50.8%550 W · 533 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef88…29a3backed No	76c	86$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.65	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed No	67c	74.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	175	47.4%83 W · 92 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb226…4469backed Yes	33c	72.45$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No	66c	69.31$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.34	85	41.2%35 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed No	63c	68$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.96	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No	64c	66.43$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.83	275	54.9%151 W · 124 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df5…1e18backed No	73c	65$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.55	76	57.9%44 W · 32 L	+7.6wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f68…4132backed No	70c	64.59$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.62	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x008d…b839backed Yes	40c	61.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Yes	34c	59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Yes	34c	59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Yes	34c	59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Yes	34c	59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x798e…4df3backed Yes	27c	58.51$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5046…7676backed Yes	33c	53.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.81	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9037…0386backed Yes	34c	52.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011c…f943backed Yes	33c	52$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Yes	42c	51$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.62	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d59…31dcbacked Yes	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x287c…81b2backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x289c…79bcbacked No	41c	49.96$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.41	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.3wins	+0.21per pick	51cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes	33c	49.54$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	636	45.1%287 W · 349 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Yes	33c	48.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+4.8wins	+0.17per pick	44cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed Yes	33c	46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd51…ce69backed Yes	47c	41.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.63	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Yes	32c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No	67c	37.89$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.57	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes	33c	37.35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	330	47.3%156 W · 174 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce0…56f9backed Yes	33c	36.1$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	44cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x320f…1420backed Yes	33c	33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked Yes	31c	33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	67	61.2%41 W · 26 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes	32c	32.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	105	52.4%55 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc137…0aa2backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed No	46c	30.04$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.22	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7753…cf56backed No	43c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.25	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a7…8102backed No	44c	28.3$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.85	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+118.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked No	54c	21.87$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.05	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	72c	16.69$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.73	222	45.9%102 W · 120 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-14?this page
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?Yes won
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-03-14?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-14?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event