Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7246d7301bcc51f853547c9b9d46ee41f59337b016b2d0b99f9c20c329e45016
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,936 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 8,408$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,389$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.73 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 73c | 3,258$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378.43 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 2,514$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 73c | 1,900$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…d8d0backed Yes | 25c | 1,565$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,249$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.7 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 36c | 918.67$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.53 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 73c | 874.55$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.42 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 849.98$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 508.66$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.84 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 503.89$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.5 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 78c | 413.2$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 64c | 398.65$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.65 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 69c | 215.7$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…5f64backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 20c | 176.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 45c | 161.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 69c | 161.34$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Yes | 27c | 123.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 25c | 119.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Yes | 27c | 107.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 106.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 25c | 101.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 22c | 90.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 36c | 89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 86.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Yes | 28c | 86.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 27c | 85.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 72c | 84.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 46c | 63.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…cf56backed Yes | 29c | 58.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 46.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 33c | 41.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 29c | 39.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 67c | 33.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 62c | 29.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…5d9abacked Yes | 53c | 28.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 47c | 27.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 77c | 24.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 55c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…79bcbacked No | 77c | 17.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Yes | 70c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 77c | 15.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Yes | 76c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.