Fifa International · resolved market
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df38216c0a37f8441bb3b132c654783479625c179594a254a8634e77c189f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed Yes | 2c | 19,490$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.74 | 243 | 44.9%109 W · 134 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…48a6backed Yes | 3c | 12,420$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.57 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 133 | 31.6%42 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 7,531$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7c…3016backed Yes | 3c | 5,357$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,213$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,803$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 2c | 3,268$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…8d79backed Yes | 3c | 2,459$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 1c | 2,455$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc5…6f99backed Yes | 4c | 2,325$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…83cdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,309$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 2c | 2,227$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 163 | 31.9%52 W · 111 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…50c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,893$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…e585backed Yes | 3c | 1,650$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 2c | 1,642$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 245 | 37.1%91 W · 154 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,622$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 744 | 47.8%356 W · 388 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 2c | 1,584$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x406e…0894backed Yes | 3c | 1,560$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,147$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4aa…f861backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…ae3cbacked Yes | 2c | 996.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…b5f8backed Yes | 4c | 981.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 200 | 17%34 W · 166 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 949.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 2c | 835.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e5…3bc7backed Yes | 2c | 644.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…fbc4backed Yes | 2c | 613.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 463 | 19.9%92 W · 371 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 4c | 413.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…c548backed Yes | 4c | 301.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.