Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e5656fa87dfe12ebe2cfd539515618b33cb6df4a33f2908c0e101b4b8b97637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 48c | 822.81$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.19 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 405.65$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 56c | 401.54$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.92 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 53c | 391.61$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.51 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 42c | 343.25$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.97 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 41c | 340.93$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 313.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 261.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 64c | 256.19$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 79c | 166.25$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 7c | 157.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 31c | 155.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 56c | 152.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 10c | 150.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 150.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 144.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 74c | 137.57$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 134.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 21c | 133.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 131.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 131.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 77c | 129.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 124.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 112.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 75c | 110.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 59c | 108$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 101.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 58c | 97.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 72c | 97.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 32c | 89.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 58c | 85.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 31c | 83.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…be1ebacked Yes | 48c | 82.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 59c | 79.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 54c | 73.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 29c | 73.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 79c | 67.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 51c | 66.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 65.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 41c | 59.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 71c | 57.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 52c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 54.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 59c | 50.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 48.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 60c | 48.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 23c | 47.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 38c | 47.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…4b4dbacked Yes | 59c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 44c | 41.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 38.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 58c | 35.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 35.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 35.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 29.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 37c | 26.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 24.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 49c | 24.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 78c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd929…36d9backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 53c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 60c | 19.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked Yes | 78c | 18.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked Yes | 67c | 17.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 71c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.