Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e8106a7aba61dd425f97139bf4df8a97f1aff25c78248882a7325944e08de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 1,434$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.38 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 1c | 1,040$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 18c | 548.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.02 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 33c | 429.72$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.99 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 387.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 306.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.66 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 304.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 296.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 287.81$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.3 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 279.28$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 74c | 251.57$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 225.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 214.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 214$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 15c | 195.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 190.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 183.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 16c | 178.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 65c | 175.61$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 37c | 174.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.12 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 33c | 172.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 150.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 148.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 34c | 125$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 116.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 115.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 106.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 33c | 104.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 104.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…ec2cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 19c | 99.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 34c | 95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 21c | 94.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 22c | 93.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 92.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 29c | 92.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 23c | 86.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 83.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 75.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 40c | 74.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 35c | 72.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 18c | 72.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 71.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 29c | 62.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 47.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 36.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 36c | 36.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 35.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 33.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 32.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 59c | 31.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 36c | 30.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 30.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 36c | 29.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 28.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 25.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 23.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 62c | 23.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 74c | 20.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 74c | 16.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.