Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x202decf86c3439920e4a480a645f7f4cb06bb94ff351d16243576200440e2a6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 1c | 5,061$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…b4cebacked No | 78c | 639.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 555.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 19c | 354.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 18c | 352.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 352.44$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 302.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 290.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 290.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 35c | 249.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 233.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 220.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 35c | 193.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 42c | 179.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 73c | 177.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 169.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 167$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 162.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 78c | 156.11$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 150.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 149.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 18c | 130.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 76c | 130.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 56c | 127.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 117$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 12c | 115.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…9f9cbacked No | 45c | 110.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 20c | 76.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 47c | 74.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 73.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 72.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 75c | 66.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 27c | 56.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 49c | 55.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 68c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…280cbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 26c | 48.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 22c | 48.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 70c | 46.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 45.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 74c | 44.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 43.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 38.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 55c | 38.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 37.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 79c | 37.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 29c | 36.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 75c | 36.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 34.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 34.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 70c | 30.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 46c | 28.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 27.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 27.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 74c | 25.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 75c | 25.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 80c | 25.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 24.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 23.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 70c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 20.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 74c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 75c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 71c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.