La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eb82cd8939715d18239bc76274b384cc3bc77902a2cbd61b4e4d1d3a5208a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sevilla FCof Villarreal CF, Sevilla FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Villarreal CF | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Villarreal CF | 24c | 678.75$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Villarreal CF | 8c | 472$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Sevilla FC | 64c | 470.31$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.31 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Villarreal CF | 14c | 184.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…84c5backed Villarreal CF | 19c | 176.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +182.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Villarreal CF | 20c | 127.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Villarreal CF | 11c | 126$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Sevilla FC | 56c | 110.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +14.3wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…f711backed Villarreal CF | 36c | 83.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sevilla FC | 62c | 45.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Villarreal CF | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Villarreal CF | 33c | 36.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Villarreal CF | 45c | 28.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…5985backed Sevilla FC | 66c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Sevilla FC (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Sevilla FC won
- Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.