NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Saints
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed1602eb5bf33927d77bdde59f90de9b4ee2752d6de714b3a4b8abbeed450bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Saints | 56c | 8,000$4,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,449.98 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked 49ers | 44c | 4,590$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570.58 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked Saints | 51c | 2,097$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed 49ers | 41c | 2,060$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.97 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed 49ers | 49c | 951$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.39 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed 49ers | 47c | 688.87$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.28 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…5ef8backed 49ers | 55c | 624.44$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…1782backed 49ers | 54c | 557.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Saints | 56c | 509.72$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.69 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed 49ers | 57c | 500$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Saints | 46c | 457.43$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.42 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed 49ers | 51c | 431.64$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.51 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed 49ers | 80c | 388$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Saints | 58c | 384.62$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.08 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed 49ers | 69c | 367$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.07 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked 49ers | 52c | 345.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked 49ers | 79c | 336$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Saints | 49c | 280$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked 49ers | 43c | 235.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…be54backed Saints | 59c | 212$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…99a4backed Saints | 52c | 202.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Saints | 45c | 199.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Saints | 51c | 162.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed 49ers | 69c | 161.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed 49ers | 59c | 157.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…0773backed 49ers | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked 49ers | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed 49ers | 63c | 117$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Saints | 57c | 111$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Saints | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Saints | 47c | 103.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Saints | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked 49ers | 56c | 95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Saints | 48c | 92.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…1f01backed 49ers | 52c | 87.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Saints | 47c | 81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…b696backed Saints | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1106…6fc1backed Saints | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed 49ers | 65c | 67.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed 49ers | 51c | 60.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Saints | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…9dc9backed 49ers | 49c | 53.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…1a1dbacked Saints | 52c | 52.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…c676backed 49ers | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…f10ebacked Saints | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…3f09backed 49ers | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Saints | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked 49ers | 65c | 31.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Saints | 72c | 27.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed 49ers | 40c | 26.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Saints | 47c | 21.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed 49ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…b4c3backed 49ers | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…1b73backed Saints | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.