Tennis · resolved market
ITF Takasaki: Yuki Naito vs Valentina Ryser
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2edf2d063b81c0cd3e17f9bff2f1a5ebdf333919cec3cadb3a53fc2bde02bf9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuki Naitoof Yuki Naito, Valentina Ryser
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Valentina Ryser | 27c | 7,836$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.31 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Yuki Naito | 70c | 7,082$4,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.57 | 361 | 45.2%163 W · 198 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…2b99backed Valentina Ryser | 23c | 6,431$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.11 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yuki Naito | 73c | 2,735$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.67 | 620 | 61.9%384 W · 236 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yuki Naito | 80c | 2,483$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.23 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yuki Naito | 75c | 1,802$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.73 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Valentina Ryser | 28c | 1,726$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.03 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Valentina Ryser | 28c | 1,024$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.35 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Valentina Ryser | 27c | 783.66$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.01 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Yuki Naito | 77c | 779.22$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.22 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Yuki Naito | 77c | 756.22$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.93 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed Yuki Naito | 68c | 686.87$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.8 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…3e8fbacked Valentina Ryser | 57c | 566.62$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.49 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yuki Naito | 77c | 487.65$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Yuki Naito | 45c | 434$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.63 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Valentina Ryser | 57c | 353.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 231 | 59.3%137 W · 94 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e3…8c11backed Yuki Naito | 47c | 350$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…20e4backed Valentina Ryser | 53c | 350$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yuki Naito | 58c | 305$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.94 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Valentina Ryser | 30c | 257.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yuki Naito | 69c | 241.14$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yuki Naito | 42c | 233.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.33 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Valentina Ryser | 30c | 231.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Valentina Ryser | 30c | 217.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b73…38a8backed Valentina Ryser | 53c | 205.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.35 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…022bbacked Yuki Naito | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 145 | 31.7%46 W · 99 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff87…f5f7backed Valentina Ryser | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…f9d3backed Valentina Ryser | 31c | 186.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Yuki Naito | 74c | 182.95$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yuki Naito | 44c | 180.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Valentina Ryser | 23c | 177.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Valentina Ryser | 27c | 171$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yuki Naito | 73c | 148.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yuki Naito | 69c | 138$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Valentina Ryser | 48c | 120.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Valentina Ryser | 11c | 119.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f24…e803backed Yuki Naito | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Valentina Ryser | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Valentina Ryser | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Valentina Ryser | 33c | 67.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yuki Naito | 45c | 66.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Yuki Naito | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Valentina Ryser | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yuki Naito | 43c | 49.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…b178backed Yuki Naito | 66c | 45.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 334 | 9.6%32 W · 302 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Valentina Ryser | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Yuki Naito | 46c | 35.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked Valentina Ryser | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…57f2backed Yuki Naito | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…1b0cbacked Valentina Ryser | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Yuki Naito | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa432…5082backed Valentina Ryser | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.