Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2efc0d151054784af8a4bd5ab1a4d4d33b038760fcf9b3ed2509342187e949b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked No | 0c | 9,488$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,117$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.41 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 873.11$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…e9ffbacked No | 4c | 576.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 572.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 514.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 314.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 300.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.72 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 37c | 299.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Yes | 29c | 297.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.32 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 16c | 288.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.78 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 277.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 256.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 28c | 251.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.31 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 220.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.1 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 22c | 213.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.33 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 202.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 75c | 194.52$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 188.37$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 39c | 177.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 148.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 29c | 145.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 142.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 51c | 121.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 77c | 119.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 15c | 119.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 115.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked Yes | 18c | 107.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 75c | 106.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 32c | 105.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 104.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 78c | 100.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 12c | 99.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 98.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 22c | 95.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed Yes | 24c | 92.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 89.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 86.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 28c | 85.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 21c | 85.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 14c | 81.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 15c | 79.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed Yes | 30c | 77.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0847…3480backed No | 62c | 74.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 19c | 74.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 67c | 71.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 70.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 24c | 70.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 68.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 19c | 66.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 61.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…e5fdbacked Yes | 27c | 59.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 58.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 57.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 33c | 55.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 55.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 74c | 54.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 48.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 44c | 48.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 39c | 48.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 29c | 47.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 54c | 45.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 42c | 45.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 27c | 43.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 60c | 42.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 40.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 40.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 29c | 39.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 28c | 38.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 78c | 38.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 66c | 36.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 32c | 36.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…5f98backed No | 76c | 36.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 35.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 32.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 31.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 79c | 27.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…c553backed No | 74c | 26.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 77cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…621ebacked No | 56c | 25.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 74c | 24.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 74c | 21.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 70c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…4306backed No | 72c | 20.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 19.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff3a…f813backed No | 80c | 19.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…897bbacked No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 79c | 17.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.