Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e99d0611bba673abc42c0fd7b5d58bbcc67ab797e2d676abc2c227135e24540
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked Yes | 1c | 9,523$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,378$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 74c | 1,463$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.26 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 64c | 1,312$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.22 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 922.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 672.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 45c | 646.36$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.4 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 58c | 635.5$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Yes | 54c | 512.61$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.42 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 447.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 18c | 447.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 46c | 391.02$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.47 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 57c | 370.11$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 7c | 350.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 40c | 349.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 36c | 337.11$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 330.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 56c | 311.29$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 47c | 282.49$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.34 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 57c | 278.35$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.47 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 11c | 270.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 54c | 263.83$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 40c | 257.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 6c | 250.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 25c | 220.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 44c | 212.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.16 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 40c | 208.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 15c | 195.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 63c | 195.28$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 191.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…eb6cbacked No | 58c | 178.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 60c | 166.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 64c | 157.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 151$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 150.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 146.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 68c | 138.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed Yes | 18c | 132.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 55c | 130.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 31c | 121.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 119.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…3cdbbacked Yes | 45c | 117.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 44c | 115.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 111.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…2877backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…c0bfbacked No | 49c | 105.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Yes | 53c | 99.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 38c | 99.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 20c | 98.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…5704backed No | 49c | 97.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 31c | 97.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 43c | 96.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 20c | 94.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 56c | 94.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 40c | 94.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 16c | 92.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 83.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Yes | 39c | 82.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 42c | 81.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 44c | 78.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 76.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 42c | 75.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked Yes | 64c | 70.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 41c | 69.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3e…8b58backed No | 41c | 68.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 57c | 67.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed Yes | 16c | 65.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…5447backed Yes | 57c | 65.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +263.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 60c | 64.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes | 59c | 63.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…6c92backed No | 79c | 62.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 58c | 61.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 22c | 61.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…ffa3backed No | 77c | 59.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 27c | 58.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 24c | 57.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Yes | 71c | 56.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 34c | 56.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked Yes | 34c | 53.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked No | 46c | 53.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 58c | 51.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed Yes | 37c | 50.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 62c | 49.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 31c | 49.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…1fcbbacked Yes | 29c | 48.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 44c | 46.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 60c | 46.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 49c | 46.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 65c | 45.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…74abbacked Yes | 63c | 44.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 50c | 43.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 43.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed Yes | 39c | 42.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 63c | 40.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…7d3cbacked Yes | 48c | 40.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.