Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c556fd903b0368d1b34ae739d877e161bb49ade2035c0881b28726ea580ece0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 2c | 2,392$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 2c | 1,456$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 1,175$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 897.76$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 44c | 850.55$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.83 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 510.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 30c | 415.92$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.61 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 56c | 404.88$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 391.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 19c | 379.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 12c | 363.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 12c | 354.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 6c | 354.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 7c | 348.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 43c | 346.9$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.36 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 327.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 322.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 19c | 314.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 12c | 307.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 48c | 299.61$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 277.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 28c | 276.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 32c | 266.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 257.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…9f31backed Yes | 5c | 256.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 79c | 249.24$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.7 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 14c | 177.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 57c | 171.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 45c | 167.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 21c | 166.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 158.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 78c | 157.73$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 74c | 154.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 151.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 146.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 146.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 29c | 145.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 34c | 144.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 68c | 144.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 53c | 131.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 37c | 126.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 71c | 123.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…7d74backed Yes | 17c | 120.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 47c | 116.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 112.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 72c | 109.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed No | 23c | 102.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 21c | 100.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 99.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 13c | 98.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 13c | 94.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 22c | 94.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 43c | 94.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…621ebacked No | 54c | 88.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 51c | 85.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 25c | 84.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…c265backed Yes | 17c | 82.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked Yes | 66c | 80.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 77.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…b30ebacked No | 62c | 77.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 33c | 76.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 71.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 15c | 71.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 22c | 68.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 28c | 67.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 71c | 63.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 79c | 59.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 59.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…b1e6backed Yes | 79c | 58.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 27c | 57.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 29c | 54.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…f143backed Yes | 20c | 52.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5286…fe66backed Yes | 53c | 51.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 73c | 50.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 69c | 49.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 51c | 48.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…8c1ebacked Yes | 21c | 48.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 31c | 44.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed Yes | 61c | 44.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 40.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 75c | 40.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 26c | 39.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 50c | 38.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 59c | 38.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 33c | 37.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 36.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 33c | 33.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 79c | 32.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed No | 77c | 31.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x406f…327dbacked Yes | 45c | 31.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5717…58b4backed Yes | 61c | 31.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked Yes | 41c | 30.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.