TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,533
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,533 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes1c13,632$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.983050%15 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…194abacked Yes1c2,664$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c1,201$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked Yes12c1,059$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9210865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes32c941.37$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.382,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…9f31backed Yes3c908.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.94290%0 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes8c784.02$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7233620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes25c737.54$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.815,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed No79c722.1$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.438239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes5c660.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.933630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes9c648.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7341845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes9c506.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.961,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes72c506.8$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.115545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes18c504.29$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9831542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes66c495.16$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.6889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes2c447.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.771,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes10c413.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5343515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes7c383.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8111436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No66c377.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.192,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes16c364.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes8c360.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7388628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No23c358.82$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.7134618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes19c337.45$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes5c335.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7747417.9%85 W · 389 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes29c306.6$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.241,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No63c289.23$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0649038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes5c285.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed No72c258.51$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.387534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes20c254.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.945127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes14c208.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.456848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c189.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.447,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4e83…5659backed Yes56c186.27$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.684344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5dd0…9f9abacked Yes21c183.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.971827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c171.91$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.664,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes7c164.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.942638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes6c159.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.924046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes9c148.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.111,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes14c142.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed No40c142.73$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.314535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes50c129.05$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6642130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes9c128.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9633243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes45c108.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.81,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes38c100.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.792,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes18c99.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.151321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes15c97.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.657642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa233…b1e6backed Yes79c96.1$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.81136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick66cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No60c96.01$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.316767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed No21c93.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9716832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes11c92.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes12c91.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.936747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes80c90.19$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1330046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed No69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9926738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…6063backed No20c86.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.779322.6%21 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c84.96$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.438,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes13c82.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4916944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes30c73.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.869122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b24…1586backed No38c69.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.672653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes31c62.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes78c60.08$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8934067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes73c59.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.613554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf284…c265backed Yes24c57.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes33c52.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.067021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No56c48.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.27972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes40c45.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2554043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes30c44.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.351,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…4dd2backed No79c42.82$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.862152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No62c37.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.341,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked No74c30.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.835463%34 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes70c29.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.327463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes79c28.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.111145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4475…b483backed Yes69c27.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.922951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No67c27.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b7…1682backed Yes80c26.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.18580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea0…8e3bbacked Yes67c21.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc2…621ebacked No68c20.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.472462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b8d…f1e3backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43281.3%26 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick73cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.819260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9840871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes57c18.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.481,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No73c15.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x20f2…3b5cbacked No80c15.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.011963.2%12 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick73cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.