MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0b29207d1f33cdbc81b6a41abcf2e5efa600973837876d366adcf46439edb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed New York Yankees | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 1,631$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.59 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 1,458$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed New York Yankees | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 932.55$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.53 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 44c | 740.75$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 539$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.01 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 436.06$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.65 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 434.49$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 353$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…70a7backed New York Yankees | 40c | 350.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 348.97$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 346.99$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.77 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.9wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 63c | 332.73$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…b7aabacked New York Yankees | 38c | 312.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 311.45$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed New York Yankees | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed New York Yankees | 33c | 299$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.33 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 41c | 284.15$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 40c | 282.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 40c | 275.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 273.03$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 230$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked New York Yankees | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed New York Yankees | 41c | 211$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed New York Yankees | 43c | 169$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 164.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 159.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked New York Yankees | 44c | 137.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 108.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…55b9backed New York Yankees | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 100.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 85.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed New York Yankees | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed New York Yankees | 42c | 63.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 45.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 37.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed New York Yankees | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked New York Yankees | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 20.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…b313backed New York Yankees | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.